Since the current administration began its attacks on our democracy, our League members have participated in a number of demonstrations organized by other groups (and one we organized). We have talked about drawing up a more comprehensive plan of resistance, but we need a member who is interested in leading the creation of such a plan. Some ideas about the ingredients of an effective plan come from the research behind the 3.5% claim we’ve heard so much about.
The idea that if 3.5% of a population demonstrates against its government, that government will change comes from a study comparing peaceful and violent demonstrations aimed at overturning an oppressive regime. The study was conducted by Erica Chenoweth, of Harvard, and Maria J. Stephan, then of the U.S. Institute of Peace. Their study included 323 campaigns held between 1900 and 2006, each of which involved more than 1,000 people. They called a campaign successful if it removed a regime within a year, counting from its mobilization peak. They found that 65% of the peaceful campaigns were successful, as compared to only about 25% of the armed rebellions. And the successful campaigns involved at least 3.5% of the population.
The successful movements had four other characteristics. They mobilized diverse groups of people, who stayed involved; they motivated some people with power in the regime to join them (business people, media officials, security forces); they used not only demonstrations but also strikes, boycotts, work slowdowns, sit-ins, and other kinds of noncooperation; and they outfaced repression without turning to violence.
However, since 2010 such movements have been less successful. The 3.5% has worked in only 34% of the cases. And armed resistance has also lost its effect. In part, the reason seems to be that oppressive regimes have become more effective at controlling information, provoking violence so as to justify harsh repression, and preventing defections from their security forces. But also, pro-democracy movements have been relying more on demonstrations alone, rather than on the four other components of successful campaigns.
For us, this means that we must be creative and canny and persistent. We need to think about diverse ways of protesting and ways of keeping momentum going. We need to recruit people with power—perhaps using the effective one-on-one methods discussed at our recent general meeting. We need to join with other groups in organizing activities. If you have some ideas, please speak up! You may be the person to lead us in developing a comprehensive plan of resistance to autocracy for our local League.
Note: much of the information in this article comes from The Harvard Magazine, July-August 2025, pp.32-35.
